“What was I thinking?”
I used to slap my head, asking myself this rhetorically when facing a decision I eventually came to regret.
Love it or hate it, decision making is a fundamental aspect of human life, influencing our personal, professional, and social outcomes. From choosing what to eat for breakfast to making big career choices, the ability to make sound decisions can determine the trajectory of our lives.
Since 2018, I have been building my nerd-cred in decision-making. Through making countless decisions like a mad scientist, many interviews and publishing my book, I have learned a lot. Consider this post a very compressed tip of the ice-berg.
Understanding Decision Making
It’s going to get a little technical here. Fortunately, if you’re not that way inclined, you can skip ahead to the actionable pieces under the headings Strategies for Improved Decision Making and Actionable Takeaways below.
But if you want to jump into the details of understanding decision-making, read on!
First of all, what is decision making?
Decision making is the cognitive process of selecting a course of action from multiple alternatives. It involves various mental activities including problem-solving, critical thinking, and risk assessment. For better or worse, the quality of decisions can have compounding effects in various areas, such as business, health, and relationships.
Types of Decision-Making Models
Different contexts require different decision-making models. Here are a few common types:
- Rational Decision-Making Model: This model involves a systematic analysis of the problem, identifying alternatives, and choosing the best option based on objective criteria.
- Bounded Rationality: Proposed by Herbert Simon, this concept recognizes that individuals are limited in their information processing capabilities and often settle for “satisficing” rather than optimizing their decisions.
- Intuitive Decision-Making Model: This model relies on gut feelings and instincts, often informed by past experiences. It is particularly useful in high-pressure or time-sensitive situations provided one has made the investment in training their intuition.
Why is Decision Making so Tricky?
Our world is quickly changing and, every day we are presented with more decisions than ever before. Unfortunately, our brains do not evolve at the same pace: we are caught in a predicament between having paleolithic brains that organise medieval institutions and wield 21st Century technology (thanks Yuval Noah Harari!).
As a result, many psychological quirks that may have helped us on the Savannah of our ancestors can make decision-making in the present day challenging.
Here are a few of them:
Cognitive Biases
Our decision-making processes are often hindered by cognitive biases—systematic patterns of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Common cognitive biases include:
- Confirmation Bias: The tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one’s preconceptions.
- Anchoring: The reliance on the first piece of information encountered (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
- Overconfidence: The tendency to overestimate one’s own abilities or the accuracy of one’s predictions.
Understanding these biases is crucial for improving decision-making, as they can lead to flawed conclusions and undesirable outcomes not mitigated.
Emotional Influence
Emotions play a significant role in decision-making. According to the Affective Events Theory, emotional responses can shape our judgments and influence our choices. For instance, a person in a positive mood may be more likely to take bold, riskier or assertive action. While someone feeling anxious might opt for safer, more conservative choices. Acknowledging and regulating emotions can lead to better decision outcomes.
Intuition
Intuition often guides our decision-making, especially in complex or uncertain situations. Research by psychologists like Daniel Kahneman, author of “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” suggest that we often have unwarranted confidence in our intuition. For more details, you can see this post on Kahneman’s three principles of building intuition.
Stress and its consequences
Stress can severely impair decision-making abilities. Under high stress, individuals may revert to more instinctive and less rational decision-making styles. Research indicates that stress can lead to the following issues:
- Increased Emotional Reactivity: Stress can amplify emotional responses, leading to impulsive decisions that might not be well thought out.
- Reduced Cognitive Function: High levels of stress can hinder cognitive processes such as attention, memory, and problem-solving, resulting in sub-optimal decision outcomes.
- Avoidance Behaviors: When faced with stress, individuals may procrastinate or avoid making decisions altogether, which can lead to missed opportunities.
These symptoms can lead to a downward spiral where avoiding decisions creates more of the symptoms above which leads to more avoidance of decisions.
To mitigate stress’s negative impact on decision-making, see the strategies and takeaway sections at the end of this post.
Group Dynamics
In addition to the above individual factors, decision making often occurs in a group context, and group dynamics can significantly influence outcomes. Key factors include:
- Groupthink: A phenomenon where the desire for harmony and conformity leads to irrational or dysfunctional decision-making. It often results in a lack of critical thinking and the suppression of disagreement.
- Diverse Perspectives: Diverse groups can enhance decision-making by bringing a range of experiences and viewpoints. Research shows that diversity can lead to more innovative solutions and better problem-solving.
- Facilitation Techniques: Employing techniques like assigning a Devil’s advocate, or a red team can help harness group dynamics positively, ensuring all voices are heard and considered.
The Problem with Many Decision-Making Processes
Below is a step-by-step framework that most resources on the web will recommend:
1. Identify the Decision
Clearly define the decision that needs to be made. Understanding the problem or opportunity at hand is crucial to proceeding effectively.
2. Gather Relevant Information
Collect data and insights related to the decision. This can include research, expert opinions, and personal experiences. The more informed you are, the better your choices will be.
3. Identify Alternatives
Generate a list of possible options. Consider a wide range of alternatives before narrowing them down. Creativity in this stage can lead to innovative solutions.
4. Weigh Evidence
Evaluate the pros and cons of each alternative. Consider the potential outcomes, risks, and benefits associated with each option.
5. Choose Among Alternatives
Select the option that best aligns with your goals and values. This choice should reflect a thorough consideration of the evidence and implications.
6. Take Action
Implement your decision and take the necessary steps to put it into practice. This phase often requires planning and coordination.
7. Review the Decision
After executing your decision, assess the results. Reflect on what worked, what didn’t, and what could be improved for future decisions.
And, this probably represents a more sophisticated decision-making process than most people. If you implement it, you’ll be doing pretty well!
So What’s The Problem Exactly?
1. Assumption of Clear State of Mind
Such processes assume an even state of mind. In most cases, when a significant, time-sensitive decision has arrived on my plate, my mind is racing and I need a way to get into the right headspace to even think about the decision, let alone make the decision. Lacking from many processes is a way to declutter the mind and get ready to think through the decision.
2. Vaguely defined steps
There is often a vague suggestion of “collecting information.” However, given the vastness of the internet, a poorly defined step like this can take anything from a few minutes, days or even months. There needs to be a defined way to approach problems that has rules of thumb for how much to scale deliberation depending on the nature of the decision.
3. The Review stage is a second-class citizen
Sometimes, there is a step to review the decision. However, as seen in the above process, it’s tacked on at the end – point 7 in a 7 point process. The review step shouldn’t be a second-class citizen. In fact, it’s probably the place where many insights in the process are gained that can transform decision making from a burden to an opportunity for great growth.
We can do better than this and probably for less effort.
Strategies for Improved Decision Making
Here’s how I approach making decisions.
1. Embrace a Growth Mindset
I tell myself: I’ll get what I intended, or, I’ll learn. When making a decision, I state what I think will happen and what outcome I would like. And, when I am reviewing the decision, I am surprised by reality, I learn something new. This insight might about the way my mind works, or, the way the world works. Either way, I win.
2. Learn from Past Decisions
Reflecting on previous decisions—both successful and unsuccessful—can provide invaluable insights. It’s not enough to reflect, but there needs to be a process to easily implement the insights into future decisions. In From Dilemmas to Decisions, I demonstrate this via general and specific decision-making templates.
3. Have a “Go-To” Set of Tools
There are many decision-making tools and perspectives out there. It is easy to get overwhelmed and put off having to make a preliminary decision on what tools to use to make the decisions. And then, I have to make the primary decision. It’s all a bit exhausting! I encourage having a base set of thinking tools that you can instantly deploy on any decision. You can see the set I recommend in my decision-making workbook. And, because you’re a discerning reader, here are the instructions to get it for free.
4. Practice Mindfulness
It’s important to my decision-making process to get myself into the right frame of mind. Mindfulness techniques, such as meditation or deep breathing exercises, can help regulate emotions and improve my focus. By cultivating mindfulness, I can approach decisions with a clearer mind and greater emotional balance. You can also learn more about my tips on up-regulating my state if I’m feeling depressed or down-regulating my state if I’m feeling anxious.
5. Know Your Why
Establishing clear goals helps align decisions with desired outcomes. When faced with multiple options, I refer back to my goals to ground myself. From here, it’s easy to determine which choice aligns best with my overarching objectives.
6. Limit Options
While having choices is essential, too many options can lead to decision paralysis. Limit your options to a manageable number to simplify the decision-making process and reduce overwhelm. Here’s one tool I use to cut my options down: I ask myself, “What would you bet?” It becomes apparent that I wouldn’t be willing to bet even imaginary money on an outcome happening which allows me to rule out trivial options.
7. Limit Inputs
In a similar way to limiting my options, limiting my inputs can also reduce overwhelm in a decision. This is not about being willfully ignorant. Rather, it’s about being selective about where I put my attention and avoiding using “researching” as an excuse for making a decision. For more on this, you can see how I use the internal proposition to manage my digital consumption.
8. Cultivate a Supportive Environment
After I make a tough decision, the months that follow can be similarly tough. I might second-guess myself. Depending on the decision, having the rationale written out for me might not be enough to convince me that I should stay the course. That’s where having accountability partners or a cohort can help by providing encouragement when things get tough.
9. Consider a pilot
Sometimes I confuse the first step with a big step. Often there is a way to test things out before having to make a leap of faith. For example, before going all in on building the next revolution in hats for men aged 45-54, can I build some prototypes while I am still employed full-time? It can also be helpful to set kill criteria for any experiment. Kill criteria provide a trip-wire that let’s me know when things aren’t quite working out as I planned and it’s time to pull the plug.
OK, that might seem a bit overwhelming.
So, let’s simplify.
Think 3 stages:
- Get clear and reflect.
- Finalise the choice.
- Evaluate the choice
This corresponds to the Chart, Choose and Check stages of the Decision Expedition that I guide readers on in From Dilemmas to Decisions.
It involves doing a little work up-front to build a repeatable process and then reap the peace of mind that comes with knowing you have even the thorniest decision handled.
Actionable Takeaways
OK, that’s a lot. Here are some things you can do right now to level up your decision-making.
1. Get my free workbook
If you’ve read this far, you’re clearly serious about becoming better at decision-making. So grab my workbook, apply it to a decision you’re facing and start winning. If you want more detail and examples on how I applied it to my life, you can buy the short, but mighty From Dilemmas to Decisions.
2. Make a list of emotional regulation techniques
One of the quickest ways to make bad decisions is to be in a bad emotional state. You can use the techniques I have listed for up-regulating and down-regulating depending on which way you need to spin your emotional dial.
3. Don’t worry, be happy
This is a close companion to the point above; when faced with an important decision, it can be easy to blow out of proportion. However, if you have done the above, you’re already way ahead of where you started before reading this post. So pat yourself on the back, you’re already winning!
If you follow the takeaways and strategies in this post, you will no longer be rhetorically asking yourself “what was I thinking?” when it comes to past decisions.
You will know exactly what you were thinking and you will be able to learn and grow from it.
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