bet to learn
Before I read Thinking in Bets, I had a challenging relationship with uncertainty.
Many decisions seemed like a vexing stop at dilemma’s crossroads.
This book is chock-full of interesting perspectives on how life is a lot like poker.
However, what stood out most to me is a reduced emphasis on results, and increased awareness of the process.
unreliable luck
The think about luck is that is unreliable.
And focusing only on results can cause us to lean too heavily on luck.
Duke labels the over-focus on results as “resulting.”
reframing losing
In poker, you can get dealt a series of unlucky hands resulting in a string of losses.
Does that make you a bad player?
Only if you concentrate on the result.
reframing winning
You can also get a series of lucky hands resulting in a series of wins.
Does that make you a good player?
Only if you concentrate on the result!
unwarranted confidence
Resulting may cause the lucky player to be overconfident causing them perhaps leading to unwarranted risk and an eventual crash.
missed opportunities
Resulting can also cause the unlucky player to be overly conservative, causing them to miss out on opportunities to win big because they are playing it too safe.
disinterested improvement
Duke proposes the alternative approach of detachment from the result and a focus on the process.
She calls this idea “disinterest.”
A disinterest in what’s not within your control (i.e. luck) and an interest in the things you can control (i.e. your process) is the path to improvement.
stacking the deck
Duke’s philosophy changed the way I approach the inherent uncertainty in decision-making (and in life generally!).
I might get what I wanted.
Or I might learn something about my thinking process.
Or both.
takeaways
So, how can you use this to change your relationship with uncertainty?
When you’re next facing uncertainty, think of your next step as making a bet.
1. Write
Write down your reasons for why you think it is a good bet.
2. Bet
Then “make the bet” by finalising the decision.
3. Review
Think about when the results of the bet will have materialised (e.g. three months from now).
Set a reminder to review your reasons (you may want to book mark this page for easy reference!).
all news is good news
When you review the results against your reasons / rationale, what do you see?
Maybe you get what you wanted.
But was that because of a lucky break?
Or good judgment on your part?
Knowing the difference can be tough.
illuminating blindspots
To help you figure out the difference, I have created a short, but mighty decision-making guide.
It will teach you a simple three-step process that will remove anxiety and regret from decision-making and empower you to turn each decision into a learning opportunity.